Analysis of Several Key Factors Affecting the Size of New Birth Population in the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy

Policy brief introduction: Based on the national census data of 1990, 2000 and 2010, this article is based on the two-child birth policy, and comprehensively liberalizes the two-child birth policy to increase the number of women of childbearing age as the target group. Analyze and estimate the fertility level and birth underreporting of women of childbearing age since 2000. In 2015, the national 15-49-year comprehensive two-child policy has a target population of less than 90 million. Among them, 25-39-year-old women of childbearing age have a target of 2 million in the new two-child policy, and 40-year-old and two-child policy women of childbearing age are in 4000. About 10,000, the proportion of the target population is over 40%. In 2015, the comprehensive two-child policy will be more likely to increase the birth population from 2.3 million to 4.3 million per year from 2016 to 2020. The birth population will be less than 19 million per year during the birth period. The population is less than 18 million. It is unlikely that the total number of births will reach or exceed 23 million during the birth of the population. That is, compared with the continued implementation of the current birth policy, the comprehensive two-child policy is unlikely to reach or exceed 8 million new births per year.

Writer: Wang Guangzhou Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences