"Study on the Fertility Intention and Birth Plan of Two Children of Childbearing Age in China"

Policy Brief: The article first proposes to build a queue of life-long two-child fertility willingness method, and based on the 2012-2014 China Family Happiness Hotspot Survey data, based on the measurement of the fertility willingness and birth planning of the childbearing age population in China. The study found that the fertility age of the childbearing population is low and stable, and the second child of all childbearing ages has a stable fertility willingness of about 55%, while the single childbearing willingness is lower, and less than 30% of the single childbearing couples who intend to have two children are born. And more than 40% of women of childbearing age who are not planning to have two children. According to the current survey results, considering the decline in the proportion of children who are willing to have three or more children, the difference between the removal of birth restrictions and the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is not significant. Even if there is no gap between the two children's willingness to give birth and the birth plan, it is also wrong to judge the ideal number of children and the deviation of the two children's willingness to take the actual birth level.

Contributed by Zhang Liping Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

     Wang Guangzhou Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences