"Does bad loans come from the housing bubble?"

Policy Brief: This article uses bank data from January 2007 to June 2015, by ownership (state-owned, local business, foreign investment, policy banks) and risk type (secondary, suspicious, loss, non-performing loan ratio, author-defined expectations) Loss rate) Classified the NPL ratio and found that all indicators fell to 2011 and then rose. Secondly, using the price-to-rent ratio and the bubble test method of 36 major cities from December 2004 to June 2015, it was found that there was a bubble in the property market. Then, panel estimates were made for 1,117 bank samples and 2,832 bank merger samples. After controlling macro and micro financial indicators, it was found that house prices had a significant negative impact on the NPL ratio. The house prices that fell after 2011 significantly pushed up the NPL ratio. After that, the author regards the purchase restriction order implemented in 50 cities in 2010 as a quasi-natural experiment. Using the 10,043 samples and the differential difference estimation method of 70 cities monthly house price and rent from April 2000 to August 2015, it was found that the price of the city was limited. The monthly decline was 1.1%, and house prices fell by 50.6% during the 46-month policy period. The author estimates the purchase restriction as a tool variable for the growth rate of house prices, and found that the policy significantly increased the growth rate of the five non-performing loan ratios by significantly reducing the growth rate of house prices. Finally, the Granger test found that house price changes are the cause of changes in the NPL ratio, and vice versa. Therefore, the regulation of the property market is an important component of the micro and macro prudential policies needed to prevent financial systemic risks.