Project leader: Xu Jiajun New Structure Economics Research Center, National Development Research Institute, Peking University

Starting and ending date of the project: 2017.04.01-2019.04.01

Project Description:

The project plans to conduct systematic empirical and policy research on development finance from the following three aspects:

First, analyze the differences in the challenges faced by economies at different stages of development, and refine the functional positioning of development financial institutions. This research aims to respond to an underlying question: Why do we need a development financial institution? How should development financial institutions make timely adjustments to meet new development challenges. From the perspective of new structural economics, economies at different stages of development face different development challenges. The economy should develop a financial structure suitable for its industrial development stage rather than copying the financial system of Western developed countries. From this perspective, developing countries often face challenges such as the lag of capital market development in the early stage of development, but accelerated industrialization and urbanization require long-term financing, so development financial institutions may help solve this financing challenge. . The analysis focuses on grasping the differentiation of financing challenges faced at different stages of development. To what extent can existing financing channels solve these challenges, and then clarify specifically why development financial institutions can cope with this challenge, and whether there is any The risk of squeezing the survival and development space of other more market-oriented financing forms. Therefore, in addition to using simple models to clarify the value of development financial institutions, historical case studies are particularly important in order to clarify the positioning and evolution of development finance at different stages of development.

Second, after clarifying the functional orientation of development financial institutions, we need to analyze their internal and external governance structures in depth in order to clarify the necessary conditions for the development financial institutions to function effectively. The practice of the bank shows that it is not easy to achieve synergy between the government and the market. The internal governance structure of development financial institutions requires both a “firewall” to effectively resist unreasonable administrative interventions and a necessary incentive mechanism to encourage them to rely on sovereign credit to achieve public policy goals. At the same time, the role of the external governance structure is equally important. At present, international norms governing development financial institutions have not yet been formed internationally, which has led some countries to simply adopt the Basel Agreement for commercial banks to regulate the operation of development financial institutions. Because commercial banks mostly provide short- to medium-term loans, these international rules governing commercial banks are likely to limit the potential of development banks to provide long-term financing. Therefore, the core of the analysis is to extract a set of performance indicator system suitable for the positioning characteristics of developmental financial functions, and to explore the causal mechanism of internal and external governance structure and performance through rigorous comparative analysis, so as to propose and improve its internal and external governance. Structural policy recommendations.

Third, relying on reliable microdata, analyze the effects of development finance on industrial upgrading and economic restructuring. Although some scholars have tried to use macro data to analyze the impact of development finance on economic growth, exports and investment, some use descriptive statistics or preliminary case studies to summarize the role of development finance in industrial development, but Due to the lack of microdata, rigorous empirical research is rare. We can collect micro data for large sample analysis. In general, multilateral development banks (such as the World Bank, European Investment Bank, etc.) have high transparency and provide project-level information. We can begin to quantify the role of multilateral development financial institutions in the economic restructuring.